Oklahoma elections

Aug 1, 2010 — The Daily Oklahoman

Michael McNutt

Aug. 1, 2010 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- Republican Mary Fallin may not like the role of early favorite in this year's historic gubernatorial race: Her Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, has come from behind to win her last two statewide contests.

Askins was able to beat the favorite in the 2006 lieutenant governor general election, partly by loaning her campaign $880,000 and energizing it by getting the endorsement of Gov. Brad Henry, so popular in the state that year that he won 67 percent of the vote in his re-election bid.

Tuesday, Askins was able to overtake Attorney General Drew Edmondson in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, partly by loaning her campaign $677,000. She also said former University of Oklahoma football coach Barry Switzer helped her efforts with a late endorsement.

Fallin, the state's first woman lieutenant governor, and Askins, who succeeded her, are vying to become the first woman governor of Oklahoma.

Henry, who is prohibited from seeking a third term as governor, said last week he will be supporting Askins in the Nov. 2 general election. The governor said he would be making a more formal announcement later but that Askins "is an outstanding public servant and has been an invaluable partner in my administration."

"She's been through tough races," said Neva Hill, a political consultant. "She has the reputation ... of knowing how to put together a good ground game like she did four years ago."

It's doubtful Fallin will take her campaign for granted, despite early polling that suggest she has an advantage. Fallin witnessed the meltdown of Republican Steve Largent in the 2002 gubernatorial election, a race some of her supporters then said she should have sought.

Largent, the early favorite, lost in a three-way race to the underdog Henry, who seemed to pick up his campaigning efforts after Switzer endorsed him.

"We're looking at a classic Oklahoma election with the real swing voters being conservative Democrats," said Pat McFerron, director of survey research for Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass and Associates, a group that handles Republican political campaigns. "If it had been Edmondson with the nomination, it would have been different. The Jari Askins supporters would have been in play, but the Drew Edmondson people will not flip to Mary."

Nearly 513,000 voters cast ballots in Tuesday's primary; it's expected about 1 million will vote in November.

"The key is that 400,000 to 500,000 people who did not vote in the primary," McFerron said. "The primary voters will line up behind their nominee. People who don't care enough to vote in the primaries, or have reason to, are the ones who decide the general election."

Fallin and Askins are tenacious campaigners and will go after those voters. Fallin has gone door to door seeking votes in her campaigns and Askins has traveled thousands of miles in the state campaigning, showing up as many political events as she can.

Both have latched onto the new social media. Messages are posted on Facebook by both candidates, and for a time last weekend both seemed to be giving hourly campaign updates on Twitter.

Fallin has won every elective office she has sought, going back to 1990. Askins stumbled in her first bid for elective office, but has won every race since.

Askins won 50.3 percent of the vote, or just 1,493 more votes out of 263,649 cast, in her win over Edmondson.

Ben Odom, a former state Democratic Party official, said Askins' surprise victory last week may allow her to continue her momentum. Edmondson coming out immediately to pledge to back Askins could also help.

Fallin won without a runoff in a four-way race, winning 54.8 percent of the vote. State Sen. Randy Brogdon, of Owasso, received 39.4 percent of the votes. Brogdon has not yet publicly endorsed Fallin.

Odom said Fallin was expected to win a higher percentage and her underperformance may cause some support to drift. He doesn't see a large gap between the two.

"Mary has a slight lead at this point, but I don't think it's anything she ought to feel good about," he said.

A statewide telephone survey of 500 likely voters in Oklahoma conducted July 28 by Rasmussen Reports showed Fallin ahead of Askins, 57-36 percent. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Hill said all indications are that Republicans should do well in Oklahoma in November.

"But when you get to the governor's race, it is the showcase race for 2010 in Oklahoma and given the matchup I think people will sit back and wait and see how these two campaigns develop," she said. "One of the things that will be most interesting is, will there be a series of debates or opportunities for them to really square off and show the voters, 'Here's where I am on these issues.' I would love to see a true debate-type format."

Askins and Fallin, who won three statewide lieutenant governor elections before being elected to Congress in 2006, are familiar with each other, having served together for 12 years at the state Capitol.

Fallin, 55, was elected to the state House of Representatives in 1990 and after winning re-election ran for lieutenant governor. She tied in the primary election but won in the runoff and went on to become the first Republican and the first woman to be elected lieutenant governor.

Fallin, of Oklahoma City, ran for the 5th Congressional District seat in 2006 when Ernest Istook stepped down to run for governor. Running against then-Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, she was the top vote-getter in a six-candidate race and beat Cornett in a runoff before going on to win the general election.

Askins, 57, after being appointed a special judge in Stephens County, lost her first bid for elective office in 1990 when she sought a state House seat. Askins, from Duncan, served as a member of Gov. David Walters' legal staff, was appointed to the state Pardon and Parole Board and was named director of the agency in 1994. She was elected to the House later that year. Because of 12-year legislative term limits, she couldn't seek re-election in 2006 and instead ran for the lieutenant governor's position being vacated by Fallin.

She won the most votes in a four-way race and won the runoff before going on to defeat then-House Speaker Todd Hiett, who had a better financed campaign.

Odom said Fallin will need to change her style of campaign ads to be successful this year.

"The No. 1 thing she's going to have to battle in this campaign is a perceived lack of gravitas to deal with the issues," Odom said. "Her 'I love Oklahoma'-type commercials aren't going to hack it this year. People are very aware that Oklahoma faces tough choices and budget problems. Running on faith, family, freedom all the sort of jargons and platitudes she's specialized in her career people are wanting more than that this year. Folks are getting tired of the usual fluff."

Odom said he likes the ads in which Askins said smart approaches have to be found to solve the state's problems.

"People perceive that Jari is smart," he said.

Hill said both candidates shouldn't "dumb down the voter and just assume that they don't want to know information. ... People really are interested."

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