The Sacramento Bee, Calif., Dan Morain column

Aug 1, 2010 — The Sacramento Bee

Dan Morain

Aug. 1, 2010 (McClatchy-Tribune Regional News delivered by Newstex) -- Attorney General Jerry Brown is defying the laws of political physics, at least for now.

Despite unprecedented spending by his Republican foe Meg Whitman, Brown is clinging to a 37-34 percent lead in the race for governor, the latest survey by the Public Policy Institute of California shows.

The edge, slight though it is, gives Brown's backers hope that that he will win in November. And he should be victorious, given Democrats' vast registration advantage in California.

Whitman has spent somewhere around $110 million since entering the race but has managed to win support from only a third of the voters. Still, if high-end donors are any barometer, the smart money appears to be siding with Whitman.

Pundits make much of Whitman's bottomless bank account. The billionaire has spent a head-spinning $91 million of her own money on her candidacy, and there's more where that came from.

But it's only part of her cache. She has raised $20 million from corporations and individuals in the past year. That is more than Brown, who has been building a Rolodex of donors for more than four decades, can claim.

Brown and Whitman will release full campaign finance reports on Monday detailing all donations and spending in the first half of 2010. But since the June 8 primary, Whitman has raised almost twice as much as Brown in denominations of $5,000 or more, $2.7 million to Brown's $1.4 million.

Candidates with the most money generally win. They can buy the most television ads, mailers and staff. Brown's aides are testing that truism, insisting he will have more than enough to compete.

Wealthy self-funded candidates don't always fare well in California, as would-be "Sen." Michael Huffington and "Gov." Al Checchi can attest. Most recently, Californians rejected Pacific Gas and Electric Co.'s (NYSE:PCG) $46 million campaign for an initiative it sponsored in June, against an all but unfunded opposition campaign.

"You cannot paper over credibility problems with dollar bills," Brown campaign manager Steve Glazer said.

Democratic strategist Darry Sragow, who occasionally counsels Brown and his staff, urges patience: "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes." Voters may tire of her, and her heavy spending could backfire.

"To know her is not to love her," Sragow said.

Still, three months away from Election Day, there are fissures in Brown's effort.

Brown is not the clear front-runner. Donors who ordinarily "invest" in winning campaigns are waiting until a favorite emerges. Some are giving to both candidates. AT&T (NYSE:SBT) (NYSE:T) , for example, has donated $51,800 to Whitman and to Brown.

An independent campaign operation established by Democrats and organized labor to help Brown has fallen short of its goal of raising $20 million from unions and $10 million from wealthy individuals.

That $30 million was supposed to pay for television ads that would counter Whitman's spending during the three summer months until Sept. 1, when Brown would take over. Or so the thinking went.

The independent group has raised less than a third of its goal. Organized labor has chipped in $8 million, although the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees intends to air $2 million worth of ads on its own in the coming days.

Labor is falling somewhat short because it has many campaigns to fund this year, and union dues no doubt have been affected by layoffs and the recession.

Individual donors have accounted for even less. Los Angeles billionaires Ron Burkle and Eli Broad have given $100,000 and $50,000 respectively. Others are AWOL.

Unable to afford statewide television buys, the campaign has focused on the Los Angeles area, where many undecided voters live.

"Is it wall-to-wall? No. But it has been effective," strategist Democratic Roger Salazar said, citing polls showing that Whitman trails.

Many candidates are finding that the recession is taking a toll on giving. Rich donors are less wealthy because of the stock market and real estate meltdowns. Brown also faces stiff competition, as Democrats across the country face serious challenges.

Out-of-state politicians come to California, particularly West Los Angeles, for the same reason that legendary thief Willie Sutton would visit banks. It's where the money is.

Democrats recently arriving hat in hand in Los Angeles include 2008 Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, seeking money for the Democratic National Committee; Andrew Cuomo, running for New York governor; Kirsten Gillibrand, seeking reelection to U.S. Senate from New York; Paul Hodes, running for the Senate in New Hampshire; Robin Carnahan, running for Senate in Missouri; U.S. Senate leader Harry Reid; and Lee Fisher, running for Senate in Ohio.

Vice President Joe Biden was here in July raising money for Sen. Barbara Boxer. President Barack Obama will headline a fundraiser in two weeks for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as part of an effort to hold onto the Democratic majority in the House.

For these and other reasons, notable donors are absent from the campaigns by and for Brown.

The family of Angelo K. Tsakopoulos has given $42,500 to Brown's campaign. That's a lot for you and me. But four years ago, the family spent $12 million in a failed effort to elect Phil Angelides governor.

Hollywood producer Stephen L. Bing has given $290,000 to the California Democratic Party and Brown this year. That's hardly pocket change, but in 2006, Bing spent almost $50 million on an initiative.

Hollywood billionaire Haim Saban gave $200,000 to former Gov. Gray Davis' 2002 reelection. He has given $25,900 to Brown, dribbled out over the past year, and $25,900 to Whitman. Similarly, billionaire Broad, who gave $50,000 to the independent campaign for Brown's benefit, donated $25,900 to Whitman.

If he raises money at his current rate, Brown will have enough for a reasonably complete campaign beginning on Sept. 1. Whitman, by contrast, will have enough to do everything: targeted mailers, fancy websites, get-out-the-vote drives, heavy television buys and much more.

Brown doesn't have many paid staffers, maybe a dozen, but they know how to count. Whitman aired 25,727 broadcast and cable ads between the day after the June 8 primary and July 22. Brown aired no ads; the independent campaign was dark for two weeks.

Despite money issues, Brown has advantages. No California Democrat has spent more time on the public stage. Voters know him. The attorney general is adept at using his office to get attention. He convened a well-attended news conference in Los Angeles last week when he declared that he is investigating the lavish pay for officials in the city of Bell.

Brown's biggest advantage is voter registration. There are 2.3 million more Democratic voters in California than Republicans. That should be more than enough to overcome any money deficit. Of course, what should be and what will be can be very different.

Newstex ID: KRTB-0178-47502385